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How Many Lives Could a Soda Tax Save?

UCSF analysis suggests tax on sugary beverages would prevent heart disease, stroke and diabetes, save billions in health care costs

Every year, Americans drink 13.8 billion gallons of soda, fruit punch, sweet tea, sports drinks, and other sweetened beverages -- a mass consumption of sugar that is fueling soaring obesity and diabetes rates in the United States.

Now a group of scientists at the University of California, San Francisco (UCSF), San Francisco General Hospital and Trauma Center (SFGH) and Columbia University have analyzed the effect of a nationwide tax on these sugary drinks.

They estimate slapping a penny-per-ounce tax on sweetened beverages would prevent nearly 100,000 cases of heart disease, 8,000 strokes, and 26,000 deaths over the next decade.

“You would also prevent 240,000 cases of diabetes per year,” said Kirsten Bibbins-Domingo, MD, PhD, an associate professor of medicine and of epidemiology and biostatistics at UCSF and acting director of the Center for Vulnerable Populations at the UCSF-affiliated SFGH.

In addition to $13 billion per year in direct tax revenue, Bibbins-Domingo and her colleagues estimated that such a tax would save the public $17 billion over the next decade in health care-related expenses due to the decline of obesity-related diseases.

 “Our hope is that these types of numbers are useful for policy makers to weigh decisions,” she said.

High Cost of High-Calorie Drinks
Consumption of beverages high in calories but poor in nutritional value is the number one source of added sugar and excess calories in the American diet.